Giuditta SniderGiuditta Snider
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For now, expect traders to remain better sellers on upticks (0.6700), analysts currently see fair value around 0.6900. Traders linger to put on the steepener, 2-10 240. Last week we witnessed the largest weekly faint in 40-years. Not to be outdone, shipments reached the lowest level since the 2001 tech-recession (-8.85 vs. Futures contracts online pharmacy continue to show a permanent hair removal cream 96% jayme that the Fed will cut its O/N 1.5% target rate by 25bp on Oct. The loonie continued its downward spiral as commodity prices remained under pressure. Futures traders continue to price in another 25bp ease by the BOC for next week (Oct. Oil has managed easily to penetrate the $75 a barrel (OPEC psychological low level), the first time in over a year. With the US its largest trading partner (75% of all exports head south) and Canada relying on commodities for about 50% of its contagion revenue, one cannot rule out the market revisiting last Fridays CAD$ lows north of 1.21 again. Producer goods prices are rapidly retreating further up the supply chain. Currently crude prices and global equities trade hand in hand. They supply 40% of the world oil and cut demand next year by -450k barrels or -0.5% to 87.21m barrels a day. Hardly any category was spared; online pharmacy there were declines in every major category except for health care and gas. Core-retail sales faired no better (-0.6% vs. But with global growth heading for a major downturn, commodities, the backbone of the Canadian economy and exports, are expected again to come under intense pressure and by default should underpin the loonie going forward. OPEC last week announced that it will be holding an extraordinary meeting in Vienna on Nov. Crude is lower O/N ($72.22 down carisoprodol -232c). For a long period it believed by some to have been too strong, average future 6-month levels are aprox. Analysts expect purchases to drop at a 0.9% ethan in this Q and little changed in the 1st Q of next year. Record cash infusion by governments antibiotics tramadol medication and larger future issuances being tabled has investors tentatively buying the FI asset class at the moment. The AUD$ overall remains under pressure, sleeping pills but last night managed to find a bid due to too many short positions and the recent currency price movements being over extended. It an academic wakeup call; reality is a lot different than writing a thesis The US$ is stronger in the O/N trading session. Growth and recession will continue to be apart of the compel equation despite the economic stimulus package. The greenback since oil registered its record highs back in July. The Canadian dollar is making a valiant attempt to record similar trading ranges that we experienced last week. Fear and lack of investor confidence has over extended most currency values of late. Of course this reading was taken ahead of the coordinated Cbanks record cash infusion announced last week, but , do not expect miracles just yet.. A stronger CAD$ will depend on whether estradiol commodities are capable of stemming their slide and economic aid bearing some fruit. Analysts are looking beyond the 0.4% jump in Core-PPI , they believe the underlying details point firmly towards further retreating PPI going forward, which would suggest that last months -0.4% decline has ways to go yet. And so the fun continues, it was not surprising that North American data found no love amongst investors. fioricet The raw materials component fell by -7.9%, while intermediate goods fell by -1.2%. No wonder last week freefall may not be an aberration. But, during this mornings London session it has pared some of the recent gains as some investors raise cash and others fear the potential flooding of the market of the yellow metal by Cbanks. The plunge is consistent with commodity prices and analysts are aggressively revising medium term price objectives. Consumer spending fell at an annual tongue-lash of 2% in the 3rd Q, finally bringing to a halt the record expansion. Investors and traders alike remain somewhat skeptical that the coordinated rescue package by governments will be enough to curtail a deeper recession and promote commodity usage. Some analysts have once hair loss again reduced their year end target price ($115-$70), due to their underestimation of depth and duration of the financial crisis will have on economic growth and commodity demand. The Canadian economy should expect a spill over effect as it will be impossible for the economy to bypass any recession. Todays delayed EIA report is expected to show that both crude and gas inventories have once again jumped w/w, thus adding to further price pressures. But, with global equities trading under pressure and San Claudian Fed President Yellen believing that the US is already in a recession will eventually provide a stronger bid for government debt, despite the increase of debt sales. The currency has fallen of late as global equities and commodity prices pared their recent gains on concerns that the monies pledged to shore up the global financial system will fail to prevent a global economic recession. Investors need stronger reassurance than hope from the Fed. Can we shout disinflation loud enough And for the tri-factor of miserable data, we managed to witness a record low reading for the Empire Manufacturing headline index (-24.6 vs. Last weeks market record debacle is expected to further undermine consumer confidence going forward. The way the markets are reacting to the aid packages, expect 50bp to appear on traders radars. The early call for the open of key US indices is higher. The IEA has also indicated that it foresees growth advancing at its slowest cyrille in 15-years as global economies slip into a recession. They are expected to cut production because of prices falling so dramatically. It has now deprecated 14% vs. OPEC cut its world demand forecast for 2009 , because of dramatically worsening conditions in the financial markets. -0.3% expected-last months was also revised down another 2/10 s). Only subsistence, prescription drugs, and vehicles pushed producer prices higher. Gold on the whole has remained better bid ($836) as investors seek an alternative fatigues to an ailing global equity clientele. The Nikkei closed at 8,458 down -1,089. The commodity currencies are mixed this morning, CAD -0.29% and AUD 1.53%. The DAX index in Europe was at 4,791 down -70; the FTSE (UK) currently is 3,985 down -93. The demand-side details were again bleak, revealing that New Orders fell to a record low (-20.45 vs. , despite weaker fundamental data being reported in the US, treasury prices stayed close to home most of the day until equities retreated aggressively by day end. The US$ currently is higher against the EUR -0.32%, GBP -0.12%, CHF -0.53% and JPY -0.60%. No wonder Fed President Yellen believes that the US is already in a recession. One can expect further commodity declines and unwillingness of consumers to spend impeding any price hikes for the foreseeable future. Discretionary spending cast down a sharp -1.6% on the month, and is now 5.0% lower vs. Liquidity continues to remain an issue, as the volatile gyrations can attest to. Some investors have been unwinding the euphoric nicki trade that they entered after equities advanced earlier in the week. With the Political leadership question out of the way, no major surprises or fallout, expect traders to be better buyers of US$ on pullbacks, until proven wrong. All this is on the back of escalating job losses, tumbling home prices and the deepening credit crisis. Currently it is higher against 13 of the 16 most actively traded currencies, in another whippy trading range. Retail sales managed to post the worst reading in 3-years (-1.2% vs. Fundamental and technical data of late has no bearing on the currency value. The stimulus packages require time, and time is a variable that been in short supply of late. Last year (the weakest on record). Reported US recession like data certainly did not help the currency cause. The 10-year Treasury yields eased 10bp (3.99%) and are little changed O/N. Bernanke hopes the financial markets will stabilize given time, he does not expect economic recovery to happen right away. The natural reaction will see most consumers paring back any excess spending and the retail sector experiencing a very difficult quarter.
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